Weekly Briefing 26/08/25

Headlines

Israel strikes Yemen after Houthi regime fires cluster bomb missile The Times

In response to the Houthis firing a ballistic missile armed with a cluster warhead, Israel retaliated by bombing the presidential palace as well as military and energy facilities. This particularly lethal weapon was used by Iran in the war in June and caused widespread damage and multiple deaths. The Houthi missile fired was intercepted, and Netanyahu claimed that the Houthis would pay a ‘’very hard price’’ for this act of aggression.

Israel said to be close on security deal with Syria as US envoy meets Netanyahu Times of Israel

There has been significant progress made in the security deal between Israel and Syria, mediated by the US. The deal reportedly involves the demilitarisation of the Syrian side of the Golan heights, a ban on weapons that could reach Israel in exchange for a humanitarian corridor supplied by the US and the UAE. Parallel talks are being held between Israel, the US and Lebanon about a security deal. The arrangement being discussed involves the dissolution of Hezbollah within a year in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

Syria appoints new UN ambassador amid struggle for stabilisation Jerusalem Post

Syria’s new appointment to the UN demonstrates the new regime’s commitment to collaboration with the international community. Mr. Ibrahim Abdulmalik was educated in Manchester and Oxford University and specialised in dismanting Assad era chemical weapons as well as international cooperation. This appointment follow’s Syria’s meetings with neighbours Jordan and Turkey discussing security arrangements.

Hezbollah may turn guns on the Lebanese government The Times

Lebanese leader Nawaf Salam appeared ‘’shaken’’ following Hezbollah’s threats of raging civil war. This follows their claims that the Lebanese government is capitulating to Israeli and American demands, although some analysts argue that these threats expose Hezbollah’s fundamental weakness. In 2006, Hezbollah’s threats of creating civil unrest materialised, creating significant issues for the American-backed government of the time. However, the current situation is different, with Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities drastically hindered following Israel’s successful attack last year. Ultimately, neither the Lebanese government or Hezbollah seem strong enough to take decisive action against the other group, leaving the Lebanon in a stalemate.

Must read

Saudi Arabia’s Response to Israel’s New Security Doctrine in the Levant Arab Center Washington DC

Last month, Saudi Arabia and France jointly convened a diplomatic conference in New York, dedicated to reviving momentum for a two-state solution. However, Israel’s occupation in Gaza City and Lebanon pose a threat to Riyadh’s interests and priorities. According to Saudi Arabia, the PA would form the most viable governing body for the West Bank and Gaza, which would exist as the State of Palestine alongside Israel. However, this stands at odds with Netanyahu’s coalition’s rejection of the two-state-solution, who view it as a reward for Hamas’ October 7th attack. This inherent disagreement renders Saudi-Israeli normalisation an extremely difficult prospect.

A fragile chance to break Iran’s hold on Hezbollah Modern Diplomacy

For decades, Iran has claimed that it is the protector of Shiite communities throughout the Middle East, and that loyalty to the IRGC will result in security. However, Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and arms proved this to be untrue, shattering the perception of Iranian strength and protection. The West must capitalise on this moment to further weaken Iranian influence in the region through its proxies, in particular in Lebanon. Dr. Israeli recommends that the US and allies deliver visible, branded humanitarian relief, launch an information campaign exposing those left vulnerable by their supposed patron Iran and offer targeted economic incentives to municipalities who refuse to engage with Hezbollah. Through these initiatives, the West would galvanise the malcontent already rife in Lebanon towards Iran, and use it to further expel Iranian influence from the region.

Key Meetings

Syria’s foreign minister Asaad al-Shibani  held a meeting with the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer regarding the security agreement in Southern Syria.

Israeli Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Muwaffaq Tarif met with U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack.

UK Minister for the Middle East & Africa Hamish Falconer met with Qatari Minister of State HE Dr. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi to discuss a shared  commitment to regional securiy

In Parliament this week

The House of Commons and House of Lords are in recess. They will next sit on 1 September 2025.