DAILY IRAN BRIEFING

Overview

Early morning on Sunday 1st March Tehran time, the United States and Israel launched a joint operation against political and military targets in Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed after Israel dropped thirty bombs on his compound. Khamenei’s wife also died. 

This followed weeks of unfruitful negotiations between the United States and Iran, hosted by Oman. At the same time as the negotiations were taking place, the United States was moving a large number (described by President Trump as an ‘armada’) of naval assets into the region, including two aircraft carriers. President Trump had set a red line for the Iranian leadership not to kill protesters, which was ignored. 

Since launching the operation, President Trump has stated that the objective of the mission is to prevent Iran projecting power beyond its borders via proxy terrorist groups. President Trump has encouraged the Iranian people to rise up and claim their government for themselves, saying this may be their only opportunity. 

What we have seen in response is a barrage of missiles launched by Iran and its proxies against almost all countries in the region.

Economic Impact - Energy market disruption has seen the price of Brent Crude oil rise to $84.54 per barrel, and the wholesale price of LNG has increased by 92% in the UK (although this remains much below the 2022 peak following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), and by 38.9% on average in Europe. 

Iran

Following the death of Khamenei the Iranian government declared 40 days of national mourning and formed a three-person interim leadership council, This includes President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary and a senior cleric. 

Iran has launched a series of strikes against its neighbours, initially targeting US military bases, but also using Shahed drones to attack civilian infrastructure, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain.

Iran's Red Crescent are reporting around 787 fatalities from the attacks.

Senior officials killed include Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Supreme Leader of Iran), Mohammad Pakpour (Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Aziz Nasirzadeh (Minister of Defense), Ali Shamkhani (Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and close adviser to the Supreme Leader), Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces), Sayyid Abdolrahim Mousavi (Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces), Majid Mousavi (Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force), Bahram Hosseini Motlagh (IRGC Brigadier General).

On March 2, 2026, senior IRGC adviser, Brig. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari, declared the Strait "closed" and warned that any vessel attempting to pass would be attacked and set ablaze by IRGC and regular navy forces, adding "not a single drop of oil will leave the region" if escalation continues. This has led Commercial maritime traffic to plummet dramatically, with vessel crossings reduced by 33–80%

Iran has stated that it "will not negotiate with the United States" amid the ongoing strikes.

United States

President Trump stated that Iran posed a threat to “core national security interests of the US.” The operation aims to “annihilate” the Iranian navy, destroy Iran’s missile sites and program, weaken Iran-backed terrorist groups, and prevent nuclear weapons. He urged Iranians to “take back your country,” calling Khamenei's death “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country” and for security forces/IRGC to lay down arms and merge with “Iranian patriots.”

He believed the campaign would last 4 or 5 weeks, but it had been more successful at the early stages than anticipated.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked that the U.S. conducted the operation with a “very clear goal” to eliminate Iran’s short-range ballistic missile threat and navy risks to assets. There was an “imminent threat” from planned Israeli action that would precipitate attacks on U.S. forces, so preemptive strikes prevented higher casualties. The “next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now,” with the “hardest hits” yet to come, and hoped the Iranian people would overthrow the regime

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer addressed the nation to make clear that the UK was not involved in the strikes. Starmer did not give the United States approval to use British bases for offensive operations, a decision criticised by President Trump. Starmer later announced that RAF jets were in the air above the Middle East for defensive operation. Defence Secretary John Healey also clarified that the UK was not involved in offensive operations.

Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch criticised Starmer for inaction. Starmer retorted that he will only send British military personnel into conflict if there is a solid legal basis to support their involvement. Other party leaders criticised either Starmer or Trump.

Starmer announced that Britain will deploy Ukrainian drone warfare experts to the Gulf to help counter the attacks- saying the UK will “bring experts from Ukraine to help Gulf partners shoot down Iranian drones attacking them”. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy remarked that “Ukraine’s experience in defense is, in many respects, irreplaceable”. Zelenskyy offered to send Ukraine’s top anti-drone specialists to the Middle East if the international community can convince Russian President Putin to pause his invasion of Ukraine. Russia imported Iran’s Shahed drones to attack Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure, the same tactics are now being used against Gulf States.  

The British Overseas Territory in Dhekelia and Akrotiri in Cyprus, which hosts RAF bases, was targeted by Iranian drones.  A Shahed-type one-way attack drone (Iranian-designed, low-cost kamikaze UAV) struck the runway at RAF Akrotiri shortly after midnight local time on March 2. Two additional drones heading toward RAF Akrotiri were successfully intercepted by British/Cypriot defenses

Sir Keir Starmer said HMS Dragon, a Type 45 Destroyer, will be sent to the region following criticism from the Cypriot government about a lack of air defence as the Middle East war continues to spiral.

Israel 

President Netenyahu called the operation "far more powerful" than prior conflicts, urging Iranians in Farsi to "come to the streets, come out in your millions, to finish the job" and overthrow the "regime of fear." He stated the war "may take some time, but it's not going to take years. It's not an endless war," rejecting notions of prolonged conflict like past regional wars. He addressed Iranians directly to seize the moment post-Khamenei's death, emphasizing the aim to end the "Ayatollah regime" threat.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar stated that the goal was to "weaken the regime enough to allow the Iranians to take their future into their own hands".

Israel reports Iranian missile strikes caused casualties (12 killed, over 235 injured from 270+ missiles), with defenses intercepting many but some causing damage.

On the 3rd March Israeli forces moved into Lebanon and seized strategic positions to enlarge a security buffer zone, protect northern Israeli communities from Hezbollah attacks, and prevent further rocket/drone launches. Forces have moved into southern Lebanon, with reports of troops operating in multiple border areas.

United Arab Emirates 

The UAE faced the most severe drone attacks, although it has a high interception rate of roughly 90%.  Abu Dhabi summoned Iran's ambassador, delivered a protest note, closed its Tehran embassy, and withdrew its envoy. Officials reserve the "full right to respond" and have described strikes as "blatant aggression" and "terrorism."

The UAE has been targeted with 186 missiles and 812 drones. 172 missiles and 755 drones have been intercepted. There have been three deaths and 58-70 injuries. 57 drones have impacted, although most caused limited damage, and fourteen missiles landed, thirteen in the sea and one on territory.

Of the drones that got through on Sunday and Monday, several targeted civilian infrastructure, particularly in Dubai, such as apartment buildings, the Burj Al Arab area, and hotels like the Palm Jumeirah. Abu Dhabi and Dubai airports were targeted by drones causing travel disruption, however as of today the UAE is organising 48 flights per hour. 

Iran also targeted UAE oil facilities such as the ​​Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, where a notable fire broke out but production was not disrupted, and US military sites. An ATP challenger tennis tournament was halted due to a fire caused by debris. AWS centres in UAE remain offline due to drone damage and stock markets (ADX, DFM, Nasdaq Dubai) have been suspended until Wednesday. 

Although denied by the UAE Foreign Ministry and Defence Ministry as “false” and “misleading”, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal have reported that the UAE’s interceptor inventories are running low- especially US supplied Patriot PAC-3 MSE and THAAD systems. Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors cost $4 million each and are fired in multiples at targets.  This raises questions over the future of drone defence, given the inexpensive nature of the drones (which cost roughly $20,000 each) and the costly interceptor systems. An official statement argued that the UAE was not depleting its air defences and has a diverse, integrated, multi-layered air defence system and a robust strategic stockpile of munitions. UAE air defence systems also includes Israel’s Barak-8 system, Russia’s Pantsir-S1, and South Korea’s Cheongung II, plus domestic platforms such as SkyKnight.

Axios have reported that the UAE is seriously considering direct military action against Iran. 

Bahrain

Iran launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Bahrain. The headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet in Manama has been a high-priority target for Iran which was hit with multiple strikes with the effect of structural damage visible in satellite photos, although no US service personnel were injured. 

The Bahrain Defence Forces have intercepted 70 missiles and 76 drones since the attacks started.  

This morning, following the fourteenth wave of missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, the IRGC claimed that the US air base at the Sheikh Isa area was destroyed with 20 drones and three missiles, however Bahraini and US sources dispute this and claim there was minimal damage. Strikes on command facilities and fuel infrastructure have been reported.

A U.S.-flagged tanker (Stena Imperative) in the Port of Bahrain was hit by projectiles while in dry dock. This caused a fire which killed one shipyard worker and injured two others.  

In some areas (e.g., Sitra Island), clashes were reported between pro-Iran demonstrators and security forces. A drone strike hit the King Fahd causeway bridge, a 25km four-lane highway which connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia ahs not released the total amount of missiles and drones it has been targeted with, however the Saudi Ministry of Defence announced that they had intercepted eight drones in Riyadh and Al-Kharj. 

US military bases in Saudi Arabia, such as Prince Sultan Air Base, were targeted however there has been no significant damage. In the east of Saudi Arabia, Aramco’s largest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, which has a production capacity of 500,000 barrels per day was hit by drones. This caused a fire and the temporary halting of operations, but no major delays in supply. This incident did, however, contribute to global oil prices rising. 

Early on Tuesday morning, two Iranian drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, causing a large fire, some damage, and temporary closure but no casualties. 

Saudi Arabia joined a March 1 joint statement with the U.S., Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE strongly condemning Iran's "indiscriminate and reckless" attacks on sovereign territories. 

Like the UAE, Saudi Arabia is, reportedly, close to joining offensive strikes against Iran. 

Qatar

Qatar has been targeted by 39 drones, 104 cruise and ballistic missiles, and two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets. Using its air defence systems which include Patriot systems and air to air missiles equipped to its Rafale fighter jets, Qatar has intercepted 101 missiles and 24 drones. It shot down both fighter jets. 8 injuries have been reported, mostly from falling debris. 

There was notable damage in the Mesaieed industrial zone, however attacks on Doha airport and Al Udeid Air Base were thwarted.  

Key liquified natural gas facilities have halted production, causing a 93% spike in LNG wholesale prices in the UK. 

Dr. Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, posted on X that “Qatar has not been part of the campaign targeting Iran. We are exercising our right in self defense and deterring Iranian attacks against our country.” Dr. Majed made clear however that attacks cannot go unanswered and that Iran must pay a price. 

Qatar Airways has temporarily suspended flight operations due to the closure of Qatari airspace as a safety precaution amid the attacks

The conflict has disrupted critical energy infrastructure: QatarEnergy reportedly ceased liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after missile or drone attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed.

Qatar has conducted airstrikes in Iran in the past 24hrs, following attacks on civilian infrastructure. 

Jordan

Jordan has been targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, although to a lesser extent than Gulf states such as the UAE. Jordan has faced thirteen Iranian missiles and between 39 and 46 drones, although it has had a very high interception rate by Jordanian air defense systems which includes Patriot missiles. There have also been Iranian ballistic missiles and drones crossing Jordanian airspace en route to other targets (thus risking Jordanian civil aviation corridors), which have been shot down by the Royal Jordanian Air Force.

There have been very few direct hits in Jordan and no casualties, although debris has caused damage. 

The Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base, a military asset of the United States, has seen increased US fighter jet deployments. The United States has evacuated its Embassy in Amman.

Russia

Russia condemned the attacks against its ally Iran but provided no material assistance. This prompted commentary about Russia’s unreliability as an ally. 

Russia has publicly condemned U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, describing them as “armed aggression” that risks a humanitarian and economic catastrophe in the Middle East.

President Putin offered condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian over Khamenei's death, calling it a "cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law" and a "cynical murder/assassination.”

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's diplomacy involved a phone call with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on February 28. Lavrov reiterated his condemnation of the attack and offered UNSC facilitation for peaceful solutions. Foreign Minister Araghchi in turn thanked Russia for "unwavering and firm support." Lavrov also held calls with Gulf leaders, and described the strikes as "unprovoked aggression" and "unacceptable.” Lavrov urged immediate cessation of hostilities and diplomatic track respecting all states' interests.

The consequent high oil prices are a source of celebration for some in Russia. Russian envoy Kirril Dmitriev gloated on X “$100+ per barrel soon”. Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov argued “For our budget [the attack on Iran] is a big plus. If Trump strikes Iranian oil fields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we [Russia] would become one of the few remaining [oil] producing countries. So we are gaining a trump card in this complex game”.

This means that Russia and China have antithetical interests with regard to Iranian disruption in, or outright closure of, the Strait of Hormuz, as China is dependent on the Strait for a large quantity of the oil it imports.  

China

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated "The U.S.-Israeli strikes have no UN Security Council authorization and violate international law. China is deeply concerned over the regional spillover. China believes that the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states should likewise be fully respected. We urge parties to stop the military operations and prevent further spread of the conflict."

On the Strait of Hormuz: China urged all parties to "immediately cease military operations, avoid escalating tensions and safeguard the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

Some Western commentary has studied the US’ action against Iran in the context of great power competition with China- such as this piece by Zineb Riboua, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Monday criticised the U.S. and Israeli attacks ​on Iran as a "clear violation" of international law, adding that Turkey shared ‌the pain of the Iranian people amid the widening war.

Turkey has denied U.S. forces access to its airspace, land, or maritime facilities for operations against Iran.

Azerbaijan

Following his death, President Aliyev sent condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian over Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in the initial strikes, describing it as a "great loss" and expressing sadness to the Iranian people

On March 1, Bayramov held a phone call with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi, conveying condolences for civilian casualties and Khamenei's killing, reiterating non-use of Azerbaijani territory against Iran, and stressing hope for a peaceful resolution. Azerbaijan also participated in a virtual call among Central Asian foreign ministers (C5 + Azerbaijan) to coordinate on the crisis.

Azerbaijan has become a key evacuation corridor via the Astara border crossing, with Azerbaijani soldiers assisting crossings

Egypt

Egyptian Foreign Ministry condemned Iran's missile and drone strikes on "brotherly Arab nations" and President Sisi conducted urgent phone calls with leaders from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan, expressing full solidarity, Sisi also stated Iran had "made a mistake in its calculations" by targeting the Gulf "despite any reasons,"

Iraq

Iraq strongly condemns the U.S.-Israeli "unjustified aggression" and "ongoing military campaigns" against neighboring Iran, describing them as violations of international norms and a threat to regional stability. Government spokesperson Basim al-Awadi labeled the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a "flagrant aggression" and "culpable act." Iraq declared three days of national mourning for Khamenei, reflecting domestic Shiite solidarity.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias (part of the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" coalition, including groups like Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and fronts like Saraya Awliya al-Dam) have launched multiple attacks on U.S. forces and assets in Iraq in retaliation for the strikes on Iran. These included Drone swarms targeting the former U.S. Victory Base near Baghdad International Airport and Iraqi Special Operations Headquarters in Baghdad, Ballistic missile claims targeting U.S. bases in Iraqi Kurdistan (e.g., Erbil) and elsewhere, and Attacks on Erbil Airport/International Airport.

In response, the U.S. and Israel have conducted preemptive airstrikes on Iranian-backed militia sites in Iraq (March 1–2) to degrade their retaliatory capabilities, targeting Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) bases in Samawah (al Muthanna Province), Jurf al Sakhr (north of Baghdad, a Kataib Hezbollah stronghold), north of Mosul (PMF 50th Brigade), and Ninewa Plains (PMF 30th Brigade). These strikes killed or injured several militia members.

There have been pro-Iranian protests in Baghdad, with clashes between protesters and Iraqi security forces. 

Oman 

On February 28, the Foreign Ministry expressed "deep regrets" over the U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, calling them a violation of international law, having hosted mediation efforts between the US and Iran for several weeks.

On March 1, two drones struck Duqm port, wounding one expatriate worker. And again on March 3, several drones targeted the port. Additional reports of drone interceptions near Salalah Port on March 3, and an oil tanker off Oman's coast.

Yemen

Leader of Iran proxy the Houthis, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and the group's Supreme Political Council expressed full solidarity with Iran, mourning Khamenei and warned that the U.S. and Israel will bear the consequences of escalation. They've mobilized large demonstrations in Sanaa and issued statements supporting Iran's retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases and Israel.

On February 28 that the group plans to resume attacks on Israel and Red Sea/international shipping.

Lebanon

Hezbollah launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes into northern Israel starting March 2, targeting military sites like airbases near Haifa and radar installations, in direct response to the reported killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and broader Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran. Hezbollah described these as legitimate retaliation for "Israeli aggression" and violations of prior ceasefires.

Israel has responded aggressively. It has conducted strikes on Beirut (targeting Hezbollah strongholds in southern suburbs like Dahiyeh, weapons depots, launch sites, and financial institutions such as al Qard al Hassan branches). The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have struck over 70 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, killed key figures including Hezbollah intelligence chief Hussein Mekeld (with conflicting reports on others like senior political leaders), and issued evacuation orders for dozens of southern Lebanese villages. Israel has bolstered ground forces along the border, approved a new military incursion into southern Lebanon, and begun seizing additional territory to create buffers and prevent further Hezbollah attacks on Israeli communities.

President Aoun, on behalf of the Lebanese government, announced a ban on Hezbollah's military activities and demanded the group hand over its weapons to the state. In a strongly worded statement that symbolised a shared frustration, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Hezbollah's attack showed disregard for the "will of the majority of Lebanese".

Kuwait 

An Iranian drone strike on Camp Buehring (a U.S. military garrison in northeastern Kuwait) on March 1, causing an explosion and damage. Kuwaiti air defenses also mistakenly shot down three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets.

A direct Iranian strike on a makeshift U.S. operations center at Shuaiba port saw six U.S. service members killed and others seriously wounded.  The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait City was hit by an Iranian drone or missile strike on March 2, prompting the U.S. to close the embassy.

Kuwaiti air defenses have intercepted at least 97 ballistic missiles and between 283 and 384 drones since the start of the conflict.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Yerlan Zhetybayev put out a statement expressing “regret over the strikes against civilian facilities of Arab states that are not participating in the war against Iran, and with which Kazakhstan consistently develops friendly relations and comprehensive cooperation”, further clarifying that “we reaffirm our unwavering principled position on the need to resolve international disputes and conflicts exclusively through political and diplomatic means, with strict observance of international law and the United Nations Charter. We call on all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint and responsibility in order to prevent further escalation of violence in the region”. 

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has echoed these concerns in diplomatic outreach, including phone calls with leaders from the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, where he condemned Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gulf states.