IRAN WAR BRIEFING

Ceasefire

The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on 8th April, and formally due to expire on 22nd April, entered its final and most turbulent week. What had appeared to be a diplomatic opening on 17th April — when Iran officially reopened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels and a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire took effect — rapidly unravelled. Within 24 hours, Iran reversed its Hormuz reopening after President Trump declared the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would "remain in full force" until a permanent deal was reached. The reversal triggered a fresh spike in oil prices and hardened positions on both sides.

18th April: Iran announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing the continued US naval blockade. Iranian gunboats fired on two Indian-flagged vessels attempting passage, forcing them to turn back. A container ship, the CMA CGM Everglade, was separately struck by a rocket off the coast of Oman, sustaining damage. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared: "It is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot."

19th April: US forces seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after the USS Spruance fired on its engine room. The vessel had departed Port Klang, Malaysia on 12th April and was en route to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas when intercepted. Trump announced the seizure on social media. Iran condemned the action as "armed piracy" and threatened further retaliation. The US military separately reported it had forced 23 ships to turn around as part of its ongoing blockade enforcement operation.

20th April: Tensions mounted as the ceasefire deadline approached with no confirmed second round of talks. VP JD Vance, who had been expected to lead a US delegation to Islamabad, cancelled his travel amid reports that Iranian negotiators had informed intermediaries they would not attend further talks while the blockade remained in place. Iranian state media outlet Tasnim reported that Tehran's team had told US counterparts that "attending the negotiations is a waste of time because the US prevents reaching any suitable agreement." Trump responded on Truth Social, describing Iran's government as "seriously fractured" and insisting Tehran had "no choice" but to negotiate.

21st April: Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, posting on Truth Social that it would continue "until such time as" Iran's leaders submitted a "unified proposal" to end the war. He simultaneously confirmed the naval blockade would remain in place. An adviser to Iran's Parliament Speaker called the extension "a ploy to buy time" for a surprise strike. The UN Secretary-General welcomed the extension as "an important step toward de-escalation," with his spokesman urging all parties to "refrain from actions that could undermine the cease-fire."

22nd April: Iran's navy announced the seizure of two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, describing them as being held for "maritime violations." Three cargo vessels were also reported to have been attacked in or near the waterway. The US maintained that all ceasefire violations were attributable to Iran. US officials indicated that Trump had given Iran three to five days to re-engage in negotiations and resolve internal divisions before the US considered resuming offensive operations.

Economic Impact

Brent Crude – $101.91 per barrel

LNG (NBP) – £112.90 per therm

Oil markets experienced extreme volatility throughout the week. On 17th April, prices dropped sharply — losing over 9% in a single session — after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The recovery was short-lived: when Trump confirmed the blockade would continue the same day, Iran reversed its decision and markets rebounded. By 20th April, Brent had recovered to approximately $96 per barrel. On 22nd April, following Iran's seizure of two ships and fresh attacks in the Strait, Brent crude rose more than 3% to close at $101.91 per barrel — its first close above $100 since the conflict began. WTI futures settled at $92.96 per barrel.

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy stated on 21st April that the war had already resulted in the loss of one billion barrels of oil production, with current losses running at 600 to 700 million barrels. Kuwait's national oil company KPC declared force majeure on crude oil and petroleum product sales, citing the absence of available tankers and damage to its refineries from Iranian drone strikes. South Korea launched $458 million in government subsidies to cover naphtha import costs for its petrochemical sector, which relies on Gulf feedstock for approximately 70% of its needs.

The Asian LNG benchmark, the JKM marker, fell to $15 per MMBtu — its lowest level since the conflict began — driven by a collapse in demand rather than supply recovery. Total Asian LNG imports were expected to fall to 19.2 million tonnes for April, the lowest monthly reading since April 2020 and down 11% year-on-year. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, struck by Iranian missiles in March, remained partially offline with full recovery still contingent on safe Hormuz passage.

Norway's offshore production rose nearly 4% year-on-year in March to 4.35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, providing some offset to Gulf supply disruptions, though analysts noted it was insufficient to compensate for the scale of the loss. The world had lost approximately 500 million barrels of oil supply in the seven weeks since the conflict began, equivalent to roughly $50 billion at $100 per barrel.

Iran

17th April: Iran officially reopened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels in line with the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, issuing a formal statement through the Ports and Maritime Organisation. The opening lasted less than 24 hours.

18th April: Iran re-closed the Strait after Trump confirmed the US naval blockade would remain. Iranian gunboats fired on vessels attempting passage and the IRGC Navy said the waterway would not be opened to "enemies of this nation."

19th April: Iran condemned the seizure of the Touska as "armed piracy." Commander Ali Abdollahi of Iran's joint military command reiterated threats to extend disruption to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and the Sea of Oman.

21st April: Iran's fractured internal response to the ceasefire extension was widely reported. While diplomatic channels via Pakistan remained nominally open, hardline military figures aligned with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei opposed any extension. Tasnim news agency reported Iranian negotiators told intermediaries they would not appear for talks. An adviser to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf called Trump's extension "a tactical manoeuvre, not a genuine peace offer."

22nd April: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy seized two container ships in the Strait, claiming maritime violations. The seizures were widely interpreted as a retaliatory escalation following the US seizure of the Touska.

United States

17th April: The US confirmed through a senior official that the naval blockade of Iranian ports would "remain in full force" despite Iran's Hormuz reopening announcement, triggering Iran's immediate reversal and the re-closure of the waterway.

19th April: The USS Spruance intercepted and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after firing on its engine room. Trump announced the action publicly, stating the ship had been en route to Bandar Abbas in violation of the blockade. The US military reported that over 10,000 personnel aboard more than a dozen warships were enforcing the operation and had turned back 23 vessels to date.

20th April: VP Vance cancelled his planned travel to Islamabad for a second round of peace talks after Iranian officials confirmed they would not attend. Trump on 21st April extended the ceasefire indefinitely but maintained the blockade, framing Iran's leadership as too "fractured" to produce a credible negotiating position. He said Iran had "no choice" and would come to the table.

21st April: Trump said on Truth Social that "Operation Midnight Hammer" — the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites last year — had been "a complete and total obliteration," and that extracting uranium from Iran would be "a long and difficult process." The statement was interpreted by analysts as a signal that the nuclear file had shifted from prevention to post-strike diplomacy.

22nd April: Senior US officials told the press that Trump had given Iran a three to five day window to re-engage in talks or face a resumption of hostilities. The State Department simultaneously confirmed it would host a new round of Israel–Lebanon negotiations in Washington on Thursday 23rd April.

United Kingdom

17th April: Prime Minister Starmer and French President Macron co-chaired a virtual summit with approximately 40 nations — explicitly excluding the United States — to coordinate a "defensive multilateral mission" to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and protect freedom of navigation. The summit followed the UK's lead role in coalition planning confirmed by a senior NATO military official the previous week.

Israel

17th April: The 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire came into effect at midnight Beirut time, following Trump's announcement on 16th April. Both Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors had participated in direct talks in Washington on 14th April, the first such engagement in decades.

21st April: Israeli forces reported that Hezbollah had violated the ceasefire by launching rockets at an Israeli position in Rab Thalathin and a drone into northern Israel. Israel said it reserved the right to respond but did not immediately do so. The State Department urged restraint, noting that the Lebanon track was a separate but related element of the broader regional settlement.

22nd April: The State Department confirmed a second round of Israel–Lebanon direct talks would take place in Washington on 23rd April. Israeli officials said the talks would focus on Hezbollah disarmament timelines and Israeli military withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

Pakistan

17th April: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif completed a regional diplomatic tour spanning Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, attending the Antalya Diplomacy Forum and meeting with President Erdogan to coordinate support for a second round of negotiations.

20th April: Pakistan's efforts to host a second round of US–Iran talks in Islamabad intensified ahead of the 22nd April ceasefire deadline. Security arrangements were put in place at the Serena Hotel in anticipation of delegations arriving. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry described its role as a "facilitating, not mediating" function, preserving neutrality while channeling messages between Washington and Tehran. The talks ultimately did not take place as Iran declined to send a delegation.

22nd April: Pakistan expressed cautious optimism that the ceasefire extension created space for a second round of talks, while stopping short of confirming a new date. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar continued to work back-channel communications between both sides.

Saudi Arabia

17th April: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan participated in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum alongside counterparts from Pakistan and Egypt, discussing a pathway to ending the conflict.

United Arab Emirates

22nd April: The UAE continued to press for Hormuz reopening. Minister of State Sheikh Shakhbut bin Nahyan Al Nahyan's characterisation of Iran's strait restrictions as "economic terrorism" remained the UAE's public posture throughout the week. ADNOC continued to monitor the impact on oil tanker traffic with approximately 230 loaded tankers still reportedly waiting in the Gulf as of mid-week.

Qatar

April 21st: Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dr. Majed Al-Ansari held a media briefing in Doha. He stated:

• Qatar supports extending the ceasefire until a diplomatic solution is reached, if the Islamabad talks do not produce an agreement.

• “If no agreement is reached, Qatar supports extending the ceasefire until a solution is reached.”

• He warned that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would escalate the crisis from regional to global.

• Qatar is “in direct contact with all parties” and has consistently called for an end to the war and a return to negotiations.

• “Our call has only been to end this war and return to the negotiation table… Qatar supports the continuation of the ceasefire until there’s a diplomatic resolution.”

Russia

18th April: Russian aviation authorities lifted airspace restrictions on UAE-bound routes following Iran's partial reopening of its airspace, allowing Russian carriers to restore suspended routes. Brent crude closed the week above $100 per barrel, continuing to deliver a significant windfall for Russia's energy export revenues. An estimated 90% of Russia's crude exports in Q1 2026 were delivered to China and India, insulating Moscow from Western pressure while capitalising on Gulf supply disruptions.

China

19th April: China's Foreign Ministry continued to condemn the US naval blockade as "dangerous and irresponsible" and called for a comprehensive ceasefire. China imports roughly a third of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz and was among the most economically exposed nations to the ongoing disruption. Chinese officials urged "all parties to take practical actions" to ease the regional situation ahead of a scheduled Trump–Xi summit in mid-May.

Turkey

17th April: Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt met their Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on the sidelines of the fifth Antalya Diplomacy Forum to coordinate diplomatic approaches to ending the Iran conflict. President Erdogan warned that the war was "starting to weaken Europe" and called for a peace approach that "prioritises stability."

Lebanon

17th April: The 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire came into effect. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam pushed for full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory as Beirut's primary objective in the next round of Washington talks. Hezbollah declared it would not abide by agreements reached without its consent.

21st April: Hezbollah violated the ceasefire by launching rockets at an Israeli military position and a drone into northern Israel, according to Israeli forces.

Yemen

21st April: Senior Houthi politburo member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti reiterated that the group had not ruled out a naval blockade of "aggressor countries" or closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait should hostilities against Iran or Lebanon escalate further.

Azerbaijan 

20th April: Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Tehran resumed full operations.

Kazakhstan 

17th April: President Tokayev’s Statement at Antalya Diplomacy Forum addressed the Iran conflict directly, emphasizing that the deeper issue is not just freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but the risk of nuclear proliferation and the spread of nuclear technologies and arms. He called for strategic restraint by all parties to avoid dangerous escalation and urged a responsible, negotiated approach. He also linked the crisis to broader global challenges, calling for UN Security Council reform and warning against the selective application of the UN Charter in international conflicts. Tokayev stressed the need for “responsibility and restraint” in peace and security matters, noting that regional conflicts like the one in the Middle East quickly acquire global dimensions.

Kuwait

19th April: Egyptian and Kuwaiti foreign ministers held political consultations in Cairo. They discussed bilateral relations, Gulf security, regional escalation, and the latest developments in US-Iran talks. Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah and Egypt’s Badr Abdelatty reviewed efforts to halt escalation and end the war.

Europe

17th April: The Macron–Starmer virtual summit with 40 nations formalised efforts to establish a defensive multilateral naval mission to protect freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting was held without US participation. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that "freedom of navigation is non-negotiable" and that EU countries had agreed to widen sanctions against Iran to target those responsible for breaches of freedom of navigation. French President Macron continued to insist that Lebanon must be included in any comprehensive ceasefire deal, framing the Lebanon and Iran tracks as inseparable.